Kazakhs Put Perceived Inflation at 9%, Lowest Since 2016

Perceived inflation in Kazakhstan fell to 9% in October, the lowest reading since the National Bank's measurements began in 2016. The median estimate in the FusionLab survey, commissioned by the regulator, dropped from 9.7% in September; a year earlier it stood at 12.8%.

Why the reading matters

For the third consecutive month, since August 2026, Kazakhs have rated price growth below 10%. Before this stretch, the lowest recorded value was 10.7% in May 2019. At the peak, in 2022–2023, the population estimated annual price growth at 21–22% — more than double the current figure.

The public's estimate now sits slightly below official statistics. The Bureau of National Statistics reported annual inflation slowing to 9.2% in October, with prices rising 0.5% month on month.

The sense of rapid price growth is also weakening. Some 30.9% of respondents said prices had risen very strongly over the past month, down from 41.3% a year ago. A total of 47.3% believe prices have grown faster over the year than before, compared with 63.6% in March 2026. The share of those expecting annual price growth above 20% has fallen from 21.4% to 12.3% over the year.

What do households expect next?

Median expected inflation for the next 12 months dropped to 9.8%, the lowest since February 2022 and down from 13.6% a year ago. The five-year expectation stands at 11.8%, also a record low for that measure. Yet the confidence is thin: 59% of respondents could not say by how much prices would rise over a year.

Food and fuel, not VAT

Among those expecting further price growth, 81.9% named food prices in stores as the main driver. Petrol and diesel came second at 50.3%, up from 45.2% a year ago. Utility tariffs were cited by 41.2%, and the tenge exchange rate by 21.1% — down sharply from 33.6% a year earlier.

The effect of the VAT increase on expectations has nearly disappeared. Only 13.4% of respondents named it, against a peak of 38.5% in March 2026.

Bread gives way to medicines

The basket of goods people blame for price growth is shifting. Bread was named by 23.6% of respondents as one of the fastest-rising items, down from 33% a month earlier. Cereals and pasta fell to 20.6% from 29.7% in September. Meat and poultry were named by 58.4%, versus 64.2% a year ago.

Medicines are the outlier: 57.6% of respondents named them among the fastest-rising goods, the highest share since 2018. Utility services were cited by 58.9%, clothing and footwear by 42.4%.

This broadly tracks official data. According to the statistics bureau, food prices rose 7.6% over the year, non-food goods 10.4%, and paid services 10.3%.

How people form their views

Households rely on their own shopping experience far more than on any institution. A total of 76.8% of respondents base their price expectations on their own purchases in stores. Conversations with relatives and friends inform 19%, media reports 17.9%. National Bank forecasts reach just 8.4% of respondents, and official statistics only 3%.

Savings behavior shows mild improvement. Some 28.8% of families report having savings, the highest since December 2024 and up from 25.1% a year ago. Still, 31.3% of respondents said their family's financial situation had worsened over the past year, up from 27% in July. Only 14.8% reported an improvement.

The survey runs monthly among 1,500 Kazakh residents aged over 18 across all regions, including Astana, Almaty, Shymkent and regional centers.