Russia retail construction falls 45% in first nine months of 2026

New retail construction in Russia totaled 194,000 sq m from January through September 2026, down 45% from the same period in 2025, according to Commonwealth Partnership (CMWP).

Moscow recorded a steeper fall within its metro boundaries: new construction reached 56,400 sq m, a 54% decline from January–September 2025.

CMWP's figures separate construction output from opening activity. The first measure fell sharply, while the number and area of properties opening in the third quarter increased from their year-earlier levels.

What changed in the third quarter?

Russia opened nine format-based retail properties in the third quarter, 13% more than in the same quarter of 2025. Their combined leasable area reached 82,500 sq m, up 35%.

The quarterly increase did not erase the weaker nine-month construction total. It instead shows that delivery remained active even as new construction contracted, a distinction that matters when assessing available retail space.

How does CMWP interpret the slowdown?

Andrey Shavalov, CMWP's senior director and head of marketing research and retail-property concept development, said: “The gradual decline in new construction compared with the period ten years ago is a natural stage in the development of the retail property market.”

He continued: “Moscow already has a significant supply of retail space, and today the task is not so much to open new shopping centres as to improve existing ones. The market is moving from quantitative growth to quality, where concept, tenant mix and shopping-centre functions increasingly matter.”

His explanation separates two mechanisms: more space does not automatically improve the market, and openings depend on where projects sit and when they become ready. The numerical forecast still points to more new space.

Which Moscow properties opened?

Three format-based retail properties opened in Moscow during the first nine months of 2026: the Kraski shopping centre, the Assortida shopping centre and the Nakhimov multifunctional complex.

The number of openings fell 77% year on year. No new retail property opened inside the metro boundaries during the third quarter, the first third quarter without an opening in nine years.

Outside the metro-boundary area, the Dinamika multifunctional complex began operating in Novaya Moscow. The city-level opening count therefore includes a project beyond the zone that recorded no new retail property in Q3.

Why have projects moved toward year-end?

CMWP attributes Moscow's construction decline to a high comparison base in 2025 and to postponed opening dates for projects already at an advanced stage of readiness.

The partnership expects a substantial part of the delayed volume to move to the end of 2026. That shift lowers the nine-month result while leaving the affected projects within the annual pipeline.

CMWP expects Moscow to open another 105,000 sq m of retail space by year-end, almost twice the area recorded during the preceding nine months. Its full-year forecast for construction inside the metro boundaries stands at 161,000 sq m, 28% below 2025.

The fourth quarter therefore carries enough volume to support the annual total, but not enough to erase the year-on-year decline. The forecast requires a concentrated release of nearly twice the area completed in the first nine months.

What does CMWP expect for 2026 and 2027?

CMWP forecasts 371,000 sq m of new retail construction nationwide for 2026. The fourth quarter accounts for 48% of the expected annual figure, making year-end delivery the decisive part of the forecast.

CMWP says the announced properties due to open have reached the final stages of implementation. Its 2027 forecast calls for 657,000 sq m of new retail construction, well above the 371,000 sq m expected in 2026.

The outlook therefore depends heavily on delivery timing rather than a smooth quarterly path. It also separates the national pipeline from Moscow's concentration of near-term openings inside and beyond the metro boundaries.